When Goldman’s crude oil analysts turned apocalyptic last month, writing that “This Is The Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes“, they echoed something we said previously namely that the record surge in excess oil output amounting to a mindblowing 20 million barrels daily or roughly 20% of the daily market…
… the result of the historic crash in oil demand (estimated by Trafigura at 36mmb/d) which is so massive it steamrolled over last week’s OPEC+ 9.7mmb/d production cut, could send the price of landlocked crude oil negative: “this shock is extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.”
We didn’t have long to wait, because while oil prices for virtually all grades have now collapsed below cash costs…
… today’s historic plunge in WTI – the biggest on record – which sent the price of the front-month future freefalling 40% to just $10/barrel…
… has resulted in selected Canadian crude oil prices now officially turning negative with Canada’s Edmonton C5 Condensate deep in the red…
… while the Edmonton Mixed Sweet Blend dipped briefly negative for the first time ever before fractionally rebounding in the green.
In other words, landlocked Canadian oil prdeucers – who don’t have easy access to expandable tanker storage – are now paying their customers to take the oil off their hands!
Why the historic plunge in the front-end? Simple: it shows the real demand and how much storagecapacity there is for actual physical oil (virtually none), as opposed to speculating on future oil prices and hopes for a recovery, which however with every passing month will get dragged to the catastrophic spot (current-month) price. As such, where the May contract – which matures tomorrow – prices will show what the market for physical delivery looks like but as Adam Button notes, “the June contract is also increasingly ugly as it approaches the cycle low” adding that “so far retail keeps buying the dip but I think there’s a rising chance they puke it in the days ahead.”
And while retail keeps hoping that the Fed will somehow start buying crude next, Button is absolutely correct.
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